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AMLO: a politician of worship

10-Mar-2010
Power Plays
Leo Zuckermann

There was a time when Andrés Manuel López Obrador was the powerful of the Mexican left. His word was law. No one dared to criticize him. Much less a challenge. Was master and owner of the PRD. The president of that party was subordinate to him. Cuauhtemoc Cardenas tickled. The large group of New Left was burning incense. Why? Because it was perceived as the next president, the first to emerge from the PRD.

But Lopez Obrador lost in 2006. By a hair, but lost. And many months later it still was the great factotum of the Mexican left. Any person within controlling party, dared to question him about his strategy of radicalization during the post-election period by ignoring the victory of Felipe Calderón. His actions angered national public opinion and made his popularity fall.

And as his popularity fell, began to challenge within his party, especially the group of New Left. The break was evident in the last federal election, 2009. The current López Obrador took refuge in the Labour Party. Who would imagine that the once powerful AMLO end up sheltering in a home match which in turn prompted Carlos Salinas de Gortari?

AMLO announced this week I do intend to compete for the presidency in 2012: "We will participate if we are well positioned to then, because there is still time and the mafia of power is not welcomed me, wanted to destroy me, but if they do not, if we are well positioned for the eve of 2012, we are going to go to win back the mob. " Who knows what you mean the Tabasco with that to get well positioned. The truth is that he is in the fight and that, nowadays, it is possible that appear on the ballot in 2012, at least under the banner of PT.

Another thing is you can get different levels of electoral choice in 2006 and even earned win. Is tremendously difficult. While AMLO is the most famous presidential policy of the country (94% of the population recognizes according to Consulta Mitofsky poll last February), their evaluation is in tatters. Subtract the balance of positive feedback about their least negative person gives a minus 21 in the survey indicated. This is the character with the worst image of all presidential candidates. As happened to Roberto Madrazo in 2006. And we know that it is virtually impossible to trace such a negative image of that magnitude.

However, AMLO still have a small group of people fiercely loyal to their cause. In the Consulta Mitofsky poll is 7% of voters who spontaneously said he would like the Tabasco was the next president. Is in a distant second behind Enrique Peña Nieto, who gets 25% of spontaneous responses.

addition, AMLO remains popular within the PRD. When asked supporters of this party who would like to be the next PRD presidential candidate, 59% replied that AMLO and 27% to Marcelo Ebrard. This percentage contrasts with the entire electorate, then 27% would prefer Ebrard as PRD candidate while 24% do so for AMLO.

What conclusion can we draw from the current political force AMLO? Who went from being a popular politician a politician cult. A politician with a minority voter who adores him and, playing their cards right, could be a factor in the struggle for power left at the next presidential succession.