Ricardo German Political Itinerary
August 3, 2008
AMLO and MEC, with parricide, or filicide
López Obrador, an old lion; Marcelo, a young
The two most outstanding presidential candidates of the PRD, AMLO and Marcelo Ebrard, a previous live political war that could end in parricide, or filicide.
This means that the AMLO son-in-it is clear to everyone that owes Marcelo political life to Tabasco, could be forced political parricide as the only possible way to achieve their legitimate ambitions. That, of course, if not his father-in-because without AMLO, the prime minister would be nothing in the political class decides to sacrifice it to search for the second time presidential candidate.
Just take a look at what happened between AMLO and his political father, Cuauhtemoc Cardenas. Around the first quarter of 2002 in this space we note that Lopez Obrador was preparing a political parricide, as the only possible political solution to become head of the PRD, head left and then a presidential candidate. Against many voices in the end we are insulted, the forecast was completed on time and, indeed, AMLO ended up killing his father-in-Cárdenas, who owed him everything.
Today the roles are reversed and Ebrard attend this dilemma. There are many indications that the story could be repeated: that her father will kill Marcelo political. Because in politics as in society in some cats, like lions, "the parents and children to maintain or achieve clutter power. And what hinders policy-parents or children, must be eliminated.
AMLO, WEAKNESSES
And I said that the roles are reversed because while Cardenas was six years ago defeated presidential candidate still remained, without doubt, The real moral leader of the PRD. But his stepson, AMLO, was holding the real power center, the powerful head of City government, which allowed him to impose his real from real power. Today, Lopez Obrador is the defeated presidential candidate, but still the real moral leader of the PRD. But Ebrard has in its hands the real power, the government of Mexico City headquarters, where does everything to impose their real.
And there are many who say that if Cárdenas remained alive up to three presidential candidates, López Obrador is still alive and has a chance "at least one more chance." Would be right if you talk chronological ages. But the problem is that in politics the years are not the same. Between 1988, 1994 and 2000, were living at birth, childhood and youth of the PRD, are not comparable year-by far-at least it will be 2006 and 2012, where the PRD enters maturity.
Indeed, López Obrador is closer to the image of an old lion that clogging of the image in 1988, 1994 and 2000 showed up Cárdenas, times when it appeared and was the youngest chief , almighty, founder of the herd in yellow.
However, we must remember that among the politicians spent years not in vain, and that in the case of AMLO, the effect is obvious and affects political decisions. When Lopez Obrador had their best moments? On the one hand, in 1996, when he negotiated with Zedillo's arrival, the AMLO to the head of the PRD and the negotiation for the great electoral reform that year, and on the other hand, when despite the illegality of their candidacy, Zedillo renegotiated to make it a candidate for head of the Federal District. And third, of course, when imposed by an unequal bargaining absolute control in the PRD in 2005.
When AMLO has had its worst moments? In the pre-July 2006, when instead of negotiating with owners the great respect electoral capital, confronted them and threatened to pursue, when Fox hit, instead of negotiating a nonaggression pact, when he invented the farce of fraud, very expensive for him and his party, and Today is the PRD and its aspirations on the canvas, and when we threw the stitch order that the project was to overthrow the government of Calderón, by any means.
López Obrador seems old lion, who lost the reflexes and the ability to create, negotiate, discuss and agree with what he leaves all the room for the young lions, like his own son, Marcelo , which aims stay with the pack and power. Still, as good old lion, will fight, but with little chance.
Marcelo, strengths
One of the main strengths-indeed, the strength, the head of government is responsible, the second political and economic power, after the President of the Republic. The fact that you spent 45 million pesos of citizens, without control, without permission and to fund only a minor part of his presidential campaign, talks about the size of the ambitions and the force that imposes its decisions and policies the government chief.
Ebrard is clear that urged him to remove, as quickly as possible, the impact of the case New's Divine. And of course, what better than oil consultation. How media keeps the noise? Public money. Money for hats, shirts, ballots, spots, blankets, banners, advertisements on radio and television.
Ebrard has spent that and many millions more on artificial beaches, artificial ice rinks, massive celebrations of 15 years, shows in the Zocalo so-called museums of art to sell his image as a politician busy and concerned about the poor, social problems and, of course, that is capable of running the largest city in the world, which would put him as the man to driving destinations. His image has grown like wildfire because ultimately what is at stake is the popularity.
And that is the final struggle between AMLO and Marcelo will be defined not a review of the capabilities of each other, the skills as leaders, as politicians, their successes and, above all, of that sensitivity and statesmen. No, the decision of who will in the end the applicant Presidential yellow, between AMLO and Marcelo, is a decision between who is more popular. That is, the most rabid political style trap.
But there is a difference between the potential of Marcelo and the AMLO. It turns out that the first has everything to do from his position as head of government-especially in a city that claims arrangements everywhere, from the security, administration of justice, roads, traffic chaos and street vendors, to organized crime and ... drug trafficking - which he sets aside four years of popularity almost at will, provided they do not go out with another stupid as of the New's Divine ", while AMLO does not have flags to keep his campaign.
The only flag of López Obrador is oil, which sold out and not proposals or positive results from the exercise of politics, but because he was such a radical degree, he went counter radicalization. Today the oil reform is almost a given, which exhausted the only card of AMLO and the PRD, while Marcelo continues to gain ground. And you can reach the final as the only candidate with life. Time.
